France’s High Council of Public Finance (HCFP) has warned that the government’s forecast of 0.5% economic growth in 2026 is “difficult to reach,” saying growth of 0.3% is more plausible. The independent budget body issued its assessment on Wednesday in a review of the government’s end-of-year budget bill for 2026.
The warning follows figures from France’s national statistics institute, Insee, showing GDP fell by 0.1% in the third quarter. Output had declined by 0.2% in the first quarter and then remained unchanged in the second.
The HCFP also said the government’s forecast of a public deficit equal to 5.4% of GDP in 2026 had been weakened by recent developments and new information. The government has kept its forecasts in the budget bill despite uncertainty over the economy.
Economy Minister Roland Lescure said the latest economic data had little effect on the public finance forecast, which at this point in the year is based largely on accounting data. He said the government had no reason to change its deficit target.
However, the HCFP said the government’s assumptions for growth and inflation no longer represented a central forecast. It noted that the 0.5% growth estimate was already above the 0.4% expected by most forecasters in mid-October, and that Insee’s first estimate for third-quarter growth made the government’s projection harder to achieve.
The council also judged the government’s 2.1% inflation forecast for 2026 to be too low by one or two tenths of a percentage point. On Tuesday, Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin described the central bank’s own 0.4% growth forecast for 2026 as somewhat optimistic and said it would be revised in mid-December.
Sources: Le Monde Économie.