The Texas gubernatorial race has tightened in prediction markets ahead of Tuesday’s 2026 U.S. midterm election. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is still favored to defeat Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, but traders have raised the likelihood of a Democratic upset in recent weeks.
On Kalshi, Abbott had a 60% chance of winning as of Monday, while Hinojosa’s odds had risen to 40%, up from 8% in mid-July. On Polymarket, Hinojosa’s estimated chances climbed from as low as 5% in late July to 39% on Monday. The contracts are settled using data from the Texas Secretary of State’s office.
Prediction markets do not use the same methods as traditional political polls and are not a substitute for polling. Recent gains for Hinojosa have come as a series of polls indicated a closer contest.
Hinojosa is seeking to become the first Democratic governor of Texas in more than 30 years. Her campaign has focused on Abbott’s earlier support for data center expansion, amid growing voter concerns about the industry.
In November 2025, Abbott promoted a $40 billion Google investment that included three new data center campuses in Texas, describing the state as the “epicenter of AI development.” Since then, he has taken steps to slow the approval process. In August, he ordered an audit of data centers seeking connections to the state’s power grid. In September, he halted approval of data center-related permits while an audit of the existing waitlist was conducted.
Hinojosa’s campaign website calls for an immediate moratorium on data centers until the state legislature establishes regulations for the industry.
In-person early voting ended Friday, with more than 7.7 million Texans having already cast their ballots.
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Sources: CNBC Markets.