Economists raised their forecasts for Brazil’s inflation, interest rates and the dollar from 2026 through 2029 in the latest Focus survey, the first to reflect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s election victory. The previous survey, released on October 26, had been completed before the runoff election on October 25.
The Tuesday, November 3, survey put the forecast for the Selic rate at the end of this year at 13.5%, up from 13.25% a week earlier. Economists expect the central bank to cut the current rate of 13.75% to 13.5% at this week’s monetary policy meeting, with the decision due Wednesday, November 4. They now expect the rate to remain at 13.5% in December.
Rate forecasts for subsequent years also rose. The projection for 2027 increased to 12.5% from 11.75%, the 2028 estimate climbed to 11% from 10%, and the forecast for 2029 edged up to 10.25% from 10%.
Economists also raised their inflation projections to 5.22% for this year, 4.76% for 2027, 4% for 2028 and 3.98% for 2029. The forecast for the dollar in 2026 rose to 5.34 reais, from 5.05 reais in the previous survey.
By contrast, growth forecasts declined for this year and the next two years. Economists now expect GDP to grow 1.76% in 2026, down from 1.8% in the prior survey, and 1.2% in 2027, compared with 1.31%. The 2028 forecast slipped from 1.81% to 1.8%, while the projection for 2029 remained at 2%.
Sources: Folha Mercado.