Seven key OPEC+ members have kept their oil production targets unchanged for December, confirming expectations that the group will make no further policy adjustments before next year. The decision was taken during an online meeting on Sunday, according to an OPEC statement.
The members involved were Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. Although Gulf producers have increased exports, most are still producing well below their targets, with shipments having been disrupted for months by the war involving Iran.
All 21 OPEC+ members are due to meet on November 29, when analysts expect them to set production quotas for 2027. “The much more important test will come at the ministerial meeting on November 29, when OPEC+ will decide its production framework for 2027,” Rystad analyst Jorge Leon said.
The seven producers have raised targets through much of 2026 and completed the gradual reversal of a 1.65 million-barrel-a-day supply cut in September. They had previously left targets unchanged for October and November. A separate round of cuts, totaling about 2 million barrels a day and covering most members, is still in place through the end of 2026.
Before setting 2027 benchmark targets, the group is completing a review of its members’ production capacity. Sources cited in the report said the review is expected to finish by mid-November. The war involving Iran has disrupted capacity expansion projects across the Middle East, adding uncertainty to estimates of future output.
The upcoming decision comes amid uncertainty over the conflict, the recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for excess supply if Gulf flows return to normal. The International Energy Agency and other forecasting institutions have warned of a possible surplus in 2027 under that scenario. Brent crude rose more than 2% on Friday, closing near $118 a barrel, its highest level since April, as traders prepared for a possible escalation in the conflict after the U.S. midterm elections.
Sources: Folha Mercado.