Spain’s electricity bills could rise by between €1.85 billion and €1.95 billion a year if a proposed regulation requiring data centers to match much of their consumption with clean power is not approved, according to a PyPSA Labs model of the country’s power system. The study estimates that the additional demand would push up wholesale prices by an average of €7.74 per megawatt-hour (MWh).
The model considers 4,000 megawatts (MW) of data center capacity, in line with the 2030 target cited in Spain’s National artificial intelligence Strategy. In a scenario without environmental requirements, dubbed “No policy,” the mainland electricity system would need an additional 45.89 terawatt-hours (TWh) of gas-fired generation each year. The study estimates this would increase annual carbon dioxide emissions by 9.25 million tonnes.
The proposed decree, being processed by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition, would make grid access conditional on data centers adding renewable capacity and meeting an hourly clean-energy requirement. Under the draft, at least 80% of a facility’s consumption would need to be matched in each hour of the year by clean power generated during that same period. The text is awaiting an opinion from the Council of State before a final decision by the Cabinet.
The draft has drawn opposition from major technology companies and Spain DC, the sector’s representative group. Operators have described it as illegal and incompatible with EU law, and warned that it could shift investment to less restrictive markets such as Portugal.
PyPSA Labs researcher Paweł Czyżak said hourly matching would avoid at least four-fifths of the negative effects on gas use, emissions and electricity prices. The study also highlights a potential drawback in the draft’s strict hourly threshold: meeting the 80% requirement in every hour could lead operators to build excess batteries and renewable capacity, with 33% of clean generation ultimately curtailed.
A separate EY report argues that data centers could reduce household bills by spreading fixed grid charges across more electricity consumption. It estimates that 3.5 to 4 GW of data center capacity could contribute between €118 million and €642 million in network charges in 2030, potentially lowering household tariffs by €73 million to €394 million a year. However, the source report says that this benefit would be outweighed by higher energy costs if the regulation is dropped.
PyPSA Labs’ analysis points to a possible compromise: replace the requirement to meet the clean-energy threshold in every individual hour with a weighted hourly-correlation measure calculated over the year. The researchers say this could support data center development while limiting the effect of additional demand on gas use and electricity prices.
Sources: El País Economía.