The process to choose Christine Lagarde’s successor as president of the European Central Bank has officially begun, with eurozone countries given until Friday, November 6, to submit nominations. Finance ministers are expected to hold an initial political discussion at the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels on November 9.
The timetable accelerated after Lagarde announced she intends to leave the post on February 7, 2027, almost nine months before her term was due to end. Eurogroup president Kyriakos Pierrakakis set the nomination process in motion.
The contest is shaping up primarily between former central bank governors Klaas Knot of the Netherlands and Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos, both backed by their governments. Knot is generally viewed as more hawkish and focused on inflation risks, while Hernández de Cos is considered closer to the more dovish side of monetary policy. Both are also regarded as pragmatic and able to build consensus.
Germany had considered backing Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel for the top job but is reportedly now looking to retain influence elsewhere on the ECB’s Executive Board. Possible roles include chief economist, currently held by Ireland’s Philip Lane, or responsibility for financial markets, now held by Germany’s Isabel Schnabel. Names mentioned in German media as potential candidates for senior positions include Princeton economist Markus Brunnermeier, Berkeley economist Ulrike Malmendier, former senior International Monetary Fund official Tobias Adrian and former finance minister Jörg Kukies.
France is also said to be interested in the chief economist position and could support Knot in exchange for the role. This links the contest between the Netherlands and Spain for the presidency with discussions between Paris and Berlin over other appointments, raising the possibility of a broader agreement among European capitals.
The succession comes amid several upcoming changes at the ECB. Schnabel is due to leave on January 3 for the International Monetary Fund, while Lane’s term ends at the end of May. The three appointments could be negotiated together, with the aim of completing them by December. The timetable is also sensitive because of France’s presidential election in the spring.
After the Eurogroup discussion, the Council of the European Union will issue a recommendation to the European Council, which will make the appointment after consulting the European Parliament and the ECB’s Executive Board. The decision requires a reinforced qualified majority: at least 16 of the 21 eurozone countries, representing 65% of the bloc’s population. ECB Executive Board members, including the president, serve non-renewable eight-year terms.
Sources: ANSA Economia.