Spain’s Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) estimates that the housing decree would have a negative fiscal impact of around €1.3 billion a year over 2027–2031. The measures, intended to improve access to housing, are due to be put to a confirmation vote in the Permanent Deputation on November 12.
Most of the projected impact comes from changes to personal income tax. AIReF estimates these measures would reduce revenue by €1.095 billion in 2027 and €1.275 billion from 2028. The largest item is a permanent 10% tax deduction for tenants whose income is below €33,007. The government’s initial estimate put its potential cost at about €820 million, with around 1.6 million taxpayers eligible to benefit.
Other income-tax measures include reductions in taxable rental income for landlords who lower rents, ranging from 70% to 100%. The decree also changes how imputed property income is calculated: the 1.1% rate remains in place this year, while a progressive scale based on cadastral value is planned from 2027.
AIReF estimates that the financial costs associated with “Tu Casa,” a new zero-interest public loan scheme managed by the Official Credit Institute (ICO), would add about €5 million to the deficit. The loans would cover up to 20% of a home’s value, capped at €50,000.
The decree also includes a 10% VAT rate for tourist rentals and a tax of up to 25% on undistributed profits at listed real estate investment companies, with reductions linked to the supply of affordable housing. AIReF projects that these two tax changes together would lower revenue by €57 million a year through 2031.
Sources: El País Economía.