The average US gasoline price under President Donald Trump is expected to top $3.46 per gallon on November 2, surpassing the previous administration-level average recorded under Joe Biden, according to Financial Times calculations based on federal data. The threshold is expected to be crossed one day before Americans vote in midterm elections in which the cost of living has emerged as a central concern.

The average price during Trump’s second term stood at $3.455 per gallon last week, just below Biden’s $3.457. The latest figure published by the Energy Information Administration was $4.269 per gallon on October 26. Gasoline prices have risen more than 33% since Trump returned to office in January last year, though they remain below the peak of more than $5 recorded during Biden’s presidency in 2022.

Fuel costs have climbed since the war with Iran began in February, becoming a political liability for Republicans ahead of the vote. Jason Bordoff, director of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said higher energy prices were a major source of concern about the cost of living and described them as the result of damage the administration had inflicted on the country.

Trump campaigned in 2024 on reducing gasoline to $2 per gallon and tackling persistent inflation. But the increase in pump prices has coincided with a rise in inflation: the personal consumption expenditures price index reached an annual rate of 3.6% in September, up from 2.6% before Trump took office.

A recent Financial Times poll found that 56% of voters said they were financially worse off under Trump. Races for the House and Senate in states once considered Republican strongholds have also become competitive, according to the report. Bob McNally, a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush and head of consultancy Rapidan Energy, said fuel prices are highly visible to voters and can act like an unapproved tax increase.

Iran has largely blocked oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz for much of the year. Damage to refineries and other energy infrastructure in the Middle East has compounded supply constraints linked to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, pushing up global fuel prices. Trump has defended the price increases as a side effect of a war he says was necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and has said prices will fall when the conflict ends.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told the Financial Times that confronting what the administration considers a threat to US national security was the right decision. A White House official said that prices, when adjusted for inflation, were higher under Biden.

Diesel has posed a particular challenge for the administration, with farmers and manufacturers reliant on the fuel. Its price rose more than 70% during Trump’s second term, reaching $6.352 per gallon on October 26. The average since Trump returned to office reached $4.339 last week, above the $4.076 average recorded under Biden, according to Financial Times calculations based on EIA data.

The administration has suspended environmental and shipping rules and encouraged governors to coordinate efforts to pause state fuel taxes. Trump also temporarily eased sanctions on Russian diesel imports through an arrangement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Three tankers are scheduled to deliver a combined 140,000 tonnes of diesel to US ports in the days after the election, though analysts expect the initial shipments to have little effect on prices.

Rachel Ziemba, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said Russian supplies were limited and that a lasting increase would require an energy ceasefire and time to repair damaged refineries. Exxon and Chevron warned on Friday that the diesel crisis could persist, as US oil companies reported combined profits of $25.3 billion, close to record levels.

Sources: Folha Mercado.