Nine Senate races could shape Social Security’s future - Economy and business

The retirement trust fund is projected to be depleted in late 2032, potentially triggering a 22% benefit cut without congressional action. Candidates in nine competitive Senate races have offered differing ideas for addressing the shortfall.

The Social Security retirement trust fund could be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, according to projections by the program’s trustees. If Congress does not act before then, retirement benefits could be reduced by 22%. Senators elected this November will be in office when that deadline arrives.

Candidates have floated options including raising or removing the cap on earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes, changing taxes on benefits and creating bipartisan commissions to develop reforms. Some have opposed benefit cuts or raising the retirement age. Many candidates, however, have not provided detailed plans.

A survey by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation found that 81% of voters in states with competitive Senate races were more likely to support a candidate with a plan to prevent automatic cuts than one who promised not to change the program. CNBC identified nine closely contested races in which candidates have discussed Social Security.

In Alaska, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan says retirees and people nearing retirement should be protected and reforms should be bipartisan. He has previously said he would consider options such as raising the retirement age or means-testing benefits. His Democratic challenger, Mary Peltola, supports eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits and co-sponsored the Social Security Fairness Act. The race is rated a toss-up by MS NOW.

Iowa’s open seat pits Democrat Josh Turek against Republican Ashley Hinson. Turek supports removing the payroll tax cap, arguing that higher earners should contribute more. Hinson has said she opposes proposals to cut Social Security and supports a bipartisan commission; she previously said she was open to raising the retirement age but has since opposed that change. MS NOW rates the race as leaning Republican.

In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins has said the payroll tax cap should be adjusted and called for independent financial experts to advise Congress. Democrat Troy Jackson supports raising the threshold, expanding benefits and rejecting cuts or an increase in the retirement age. MS NOW rates the contest a toss-up.

Michigan candidates Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, and Republican Mike Rogers have both discussed bipartisan action, but differ on the details. El-Sayed wants to eliminate the payroll tax cap and taxes on Social Security benefits. Rogers has called for a bipartisan committee to address the program’s funding problems. MS NOW rates the race a toss-up.

In Nebraska, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts supports making Social Security benefits tax-free; he backed a state-level phaseout of taxes on benefits as governor and introduced a similar federal measure. Independent candidate Dan Osborn supports raising or eliminating the payroll tax cap and opposes benefit cuts, raising the retirement age and privatization. MS NOW rates the seat likely Republican.

New Hampshire Democrat Chris Pappas says he will not vote to cut benefits and supports requiring high earners to contribute more. He has also called for higher benefits, saying cost-of-living adjustments have not kept pace with the true cost of living. Republican John Sununu has said he never voted to reduce benefits; in the past, he supported proposals that would have diverted some payroll taxes into individual investment accounts. MS NOW rates the contest as leaning Democrat.

In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper has pledged to protect and strengthen Social Security, while Republican Michael Whatley says preserving the program is a priority and that Congress should work on its solvency in a bipartisan way. MS NOW rates the race as leaning Democrat.

Ohio’s special election is a contest between Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is seeking to return to the Senate. Brown opposes privatization and wants to raise the payroll tax cap so higher earners contribute more. Husted has called for bipartisan solutions and voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. MS NOW rates the race a toss-up.

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico supports eliminating the payroll tax cap for people earning more than $400,000. Republican Ken Paxton says the government should not cut Social Security benefits, while also calling for efforts to address what he describes as waste, fraud and abuse. Paxton said in a leaked recording that some mandatory spending needs to be cut, but later told the Texas Tribune he would protect Social Security. MS NOW rates the race a toss-up.

Sources: CNBC Markets.